Election Day 2010 Observations

The U.S. Senate

It’s possible that the Delaware Senate seat will not be needed for Republicans to wrestle control of that deliberative body. The Republican candidate will not lose because she is the conservative witch of the east, as the dead-tree media will lead you to believe. She will lose because she became winy during the final week of the campaign and did not hold her opponent, the bearded Marxist, Mr. Coons, feet to the fire.

Based on polls in the closing days of the election, I am inclined to believe that the Senate will be comprised of 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans with crazy Uncle Joe Biden casting the deciding vote on important issues.

Campaigns’ Closing Days
Did you notice that President Obama and V.P. Biden spent much of the closing days of the campaign in deep blue states. This is a strong indication that the dems are in deep doo doo. Normally, a party’s base would have already been secured. From there the campaign would then circle out to marginal areas to secure close races. The internal polls must have showed something different.

2012
Believe it or not, the campaign for President begins the day after today’s election. Obama is already down six electoral votes from the 2008 contest, based upon census estimates. Texas alone is expected to gain four congressional seats. Consequently, four additional electoral votes for 2012 will be added to Texas’ 34. California on the other hand will not gain any for the first time in decades. Should Obama run for re-election the swing states he won in 2008 would be major battlegrounds in 2012.

Re-apportionment
If it turns out to be a Republican Tsunami today, you can almost bank on the fact that the Republicans will control the House for the next decade. Many states will elect Republican governors today and help them with split or fully controlled legislatures. This is the democrat’s worse nightmare. The Republicans are likely to put in play more geographically reasonable re-districting maps. Gone will be the gerrymandered districts that the Democrats love to carve out.

It will all be fun to watch, read, and listen to tonight.

The Importance of the 2010 Election

The importance of this year’s election cannot be understated. The 2010 general election ranks much higher than any other election in this decade. Not only will voters be able to take a stand against profligate government spending, but will make a determination as to whether tax and budget cutters will make it into the halls of power. Consequently, moving our state and nation on the road to solvency.


Another great effect of this year’s election is how the reapportionment map will be drawn. After the dust has settled post November 2, 2010, legislators and the Governor will begin the careful negotiation of how the states legislative and congressional districts will be drawn.

Based on Census estimates coming out of Washington, D.C., Illinois stands to loose another Congressional seat. Based on tentative census figures the big gainers will be Texas (+4) and Florida (+2). Other states that will gain a seat will be AZ, GA, NV, SC, UT, and WA. Joining Illinois’ with projected loss of one seat will be our neighbors Iowa and Missouri. Others with a projected one-seat loss will be LA, MA, MI, MO, NJ and PA. The biggest losers will be Ohio and New York, both with a projected loss of two seats.

It remains to be seen whether that seat will come out rural Illinois or the City of Chicago. Based on past growth patterns, it is unlikely any seat will be poached from suburban Chicago. If one examines the current map there are two congressional districts that are egregious examples of gerrymandering. District 17 in Western Illinois floats from the Quad Cities area down the Mississippi River down to the Illinois towns outside of St. Louis, MO, then juts over to the Springfield, Illinois area. Currently Phil Hare (D) represents the 17th district. The other gerrymandered district is district 4 in the City of Chicago and inner suburbs. Imagine a giant horseshoe with large clubs at the tips. Louis Gutierrez (D) represents the 4th District. A young child could have drawn both of these districts much better than the legislature did ten years ago. This has to be improved.

I am inclined to believe that the seat should come out of the City of Chicago. Population growth has been greater in the suburbs. People have moved out of the city to the suburbs for decades. The Congressional map should be drawn accordingly.

The 2010 Election is very important, as we will make a choice between fiscal sanity or traveling further down the road to serfdom. We will also determine what type of legislature we will have for years to come based on the reapportionment issue that looms large on the horizon.